Relative sea-level projections for Norway based on IPCC AR6

This dataset contains IPCC AR6 relative sea-level projections tailored to Norway and published in the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services report by Simpson et al. (2024).

The projections has been produced by taking the IPCC AR6 relative sea-level projections without the background vertical land motion (VLM) component (Kopp, 2021), which have then been combined with the semi-empirical NKG2016LU VLM model (Vestøl et al., 2019). See Simpson et al. (2024) for more details.

The dataset is available as gridded data in netCDF version 4 format at Zenondo. The variables in the gridded netCDF data are:

quantile: Quantiles of the distribution of the sea-level change variable. Quantiles from 0.01 to 0.99 in 0.01 increments are available. In addition, the quantiles 0.001, 0.005, 0.167, 0.833, 0.995, and 0.999 are included. (total of 105 quantiles). Multiply by 100 to get the equivalent percentile values.

year: Years at which projection data are available. The medium confidence projections are available from 2020 to 2150 in 10-year increments (14 time steps). The low confidence projections are available from 2020 to 2300 in 10-year increments (29 time steps).

lat: Latitudes from 49 to 75 degrees north in 1/12 degree increments (313 values).

lon: Longitudes from 0 to 50 degrees east in 1/6 degree increments (301 values).

sea_level_change (sea_level_change_rate): Projected sea-level change (rate) with respect to the reference period 1995-2014. Units are millimeters (millimeters per year).

References:

Kopp, R. E. (2021). IPCC AR6 Relative Sea Level Projections without Background Component (Version 20210809) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5967269

Vestøl, O., Ågren, J., Steffen, H., Kierulf, H., & Tarasov, L. (2019). NKG2016LU: A new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region. Journal of Geodesy, 93(9), 1759–1779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01280-8

Simpson, M.J.R., Bonaduce, A., Borck, H.S., Breili, K., Breivik, Ø., Ravndal, O.R., Richter, K., 2024. Sea-Level Rise and Extremes in Norway: Observations and Projections Based on IPCC AR6. Norwegian Centre for Climate Services report 1/2024, ISSN 2704-1018, Oslo, Norway.